Mason, S., Farrow, T.F.D., Fawbert, D., Smith, R., Bath, P.A., Hunter, M., Woodruff, P.W. and Turpin, G. (2009) The development of a clinically useful tool for predicting the development of psychological disorder following injury. British Journal of Clinical Psychology, 48. pp. 31-45. ISSN 0144-6657
Objectives. To identify factors significantly associated with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), anxiety, and depression at 3 months post-injury; to develop a generic model to predict the occurrence of PTSD, anxiety, and depression at 3 months postinjury; and to validate this model in a test data set of patients. Design. Prospective cohort study.
Methods. Participants were 823 patients attending an emergency department (ED) following accidental injury. Baseline questionnaires were completed, with 1 and 3 months postal follow-ups. Predictor variables demonstrating significant associations with two of the three outcome measures (3-month HAD anxiety and depression scores and PTSD symptoms) were included in multivariate regression models for each outcome. Non-significant predictor variables were removed until all remaining independent variables made the most significant contribution to each of the three models. Models were validated using a test dataset.
Results. Previous history of mental health problems, neuroticism score and having PTSD symptoms at 1 month predicted adverse outcomes at 3 months. When used on the test datasets, the areas under the receiver operating curve (ROC) curve for the models predicting outcomes at 3 months were: PTSD 0.91 (sensitivity 88.5%); anxiety 0.87 (sensitivity 93.7%); and depression 0.87 (sensitivity 96.7%).
Conclusions. The final model performed moderately well across the three outcomes and may be useful clinically as a generic rule-out tool to identify those who will not require follow up, watchful waiting or intervention.
|Keywords:||POSTTRAUMATIC-STRESS-DISORDER; RANDOMIZED CONTROLLED-TRIAL; MOTOR-VEHICLE ACCIDENTS; 2-YEAR PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION; SELF-HELP INFORMATION; TRAUMATIC INJURY; VIOLENT CRIME; RISK-FACTORS; VICTIMS; PTSD|
|Institution:||The University of Sheffield|
|Academic Units:||The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Information School (Sheffield)|
|Depositing User:||Information Studies|
|Date Deposited:||14 Aug 2009 10:29|
|Last Modified:||14 Aug 2009 10:29|
|Publisher:||British Psychological Society|