An option generation tool for potential urban transport policy packages

Several studies have indicated that option generation - the development of a range of strategic policy options to tackle identified transport problems – is the weakest link in current transport planning practice. Local authorities all too often limit themselves to pre-conceived solutions, focus on supply-side rather than demand-side polices, and are unaware of the potential of novel solutions. This is even more the case for the development of packages of policy instruments, in which each can be expected to support the others by making it more effective or easier to implement. A decision-support tool, based on the transport policy knowledgebase, KonSULT, which generates possible policy packages, is described. The tool can operate in one of two ways: by taking a single user-specified policy instrument, and identifying the other policy instruments in KonSULT which might best support it; or by taking a user-specified shortlist of up to ten policy instruments, and identifying those combinations which might perform best in the specified context. In both cases the user specifies whether the emphasis should be on synergy or on the resolution of barriers. The best performing instruments are highlighted through a scoring system. The synergy scores were initially based on professional judgment. Subsequently, a sketch planning model was used to provide improved estimates for them. The resolution of barriers scores continue to be based on professional judgement. The paper describes the development of the tool and discusses the implications of the subsequent model-based analysis. It outlines future developments and reviews the role of such tools in policy formulation.