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Monetary Policy Preferences of the European Monetary Union and the UK

Arestis, Philip, Karoglou, Michail and Mouratidis, Kostas (2011) Monetary Policy Preferences of the European Monetary Union and the UK. Working Paper. Department of Economics, University of Sheffield ISSN 1749-8368

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Abstract

This paper estimates central bank policy preferences in the case of the European Monetary Union and of the UK. We do so, by adopting the framework suggested by Cecchetti and Ehrmann (1999), which, however, we extent in two respects. First, we allow policy preferences to be asymmetric by assuming that inflation and output follow a Markov process. Second, following Bean (1998) we introduce dynamics in the supply and demand relationships. In doing so we estimate state-dependent policy frontiers. Empirical results from the static model show that monetary policy in the European Monetary Union and in the UK put a lot of weight on price stability. However, there is evidence of 'price puzzle' especially in the high volatility regime. The price puzzle might be the by-product of frequent realignments in the European Monetary System currency crises in 1992, 1993 and 1995 and of the more recent 2008 financial crisis. Estimates of the optimal policy frontier suggest that although the UK enjoys higher anti-inflationary credibility, it also faces a higher trade-off between inflation and output variability than the European Monetary Union.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: The Sheffield Economics Research Paper (SERP) series offers a forum for the research output of the academic staff and research students of the Department of Economics, University of Sheffield. Papers are reviewed for quality and presentation by a departmental editor. However, the contents and opinions expressed remain the responsibility of the authors. All papers may be downloaded free on the understanding that the contents are preliminary and therefore permission from the author(s) should be sought before they are referenced.
Institution: The University of Sheffield
Academic Units: The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) > Sheffield Economics Research Papers Series
Depositing User: Repository Officer
Date Deposited: 04 Oct 2011 14:17
Last Modified: 10 Jun 2014 14:16
Published Version: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/yea...
Status: Published
Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Sheffield
Identification Number: Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series 2011019
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/43304

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