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Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US

Caglayan, M., Kandemir, O. and Mouratidis, K. (2011) Real effects of inflation uncertainty in the US. Working Paper. Department of Economics, University of Sheffield ISSN 1749-8368


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We empirically investigate the effects of inflation uncertainty on output growth for the US using both monthly and quarterly data over 1985-2009. Employing a Markov regime switching approach to model output dynamics, we show that inflation uncertainty obtained from a Markov regime switching GARCH model exerts a negative and regime dependant impact on output growth. In particular, we show that the negative impact of inflation uncertainty on output growth is almost 4.5 times higher during the low growth regime than that during the high growth regime. We verify the robustness of our findings using quarterly data.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Copyright, Publisher and Additional Information: The Sheffield Economics Research Paper (SERP) series offers a forum for the research output of the academic staff and research students of the Department of Economics, University of Sheffield. Papers are reviewed for quality and presentation by a departmental editor. However, the contents and opinions expressed remain the responsibility of the authors. All papers may be downloaded free on the understanding that the contents are preliminary and therefore permission from the author(s) should be sought before they are referenced.
Keywords: growth, inflation uncertainty, Markov-switching modeling, Markov-switching GARCH
Institution: The University of Sheffield
Academic Units: The University of Sheffield > Faculty of Social Sciences (Sheffield) > Department of Economics (Sheffield) > Sheffield Economics Research Papers Series
Depositing User: Repository Officer
Date Deposited: 21 Feb 2011 17:01
Last Modified: 18 Jun 2014 05:22
Published Version: http://www.shef.ac.uk/economics/research/serps/yea...
Status: Published
Publisher: Department of Economics, University of Sheffield
Identification Number: Sheffield Economic Research Paper Series 2011002
URI: http://eprints.whiterose.ac.uk/id/eprint/42869

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