Talking about Futureproofing: Real Options Reasoning in Complex Infrastructure Projects

Complex infrastructure projects often attract criticism regarding their short- and long-term performance. An effective development process requires thinking about both present and future requirements. We employed the lens of real options reasoning to investigate the power of verbal theorizing, without the aid of analytical modeling, to add flexibility in the development process. Drawing on 32 semi-structured interviews with decision-makers involved in health estate projects, we examined if and how informal talks in the development process can lead to futureproof outcomes. Our findings synthesize and conceptualize relevant insights on iterative design thinking, affordability, bounded rationality, and motivational gaps as causal mechanisms for futureproofing talks and thus real options reasoning. This article contributes to the planning and project studies literature dealing with futureproofing complex infrastructure projects.