Modeling and Simulating Vicious Circles Problems

Time and cost overruns in new product development processes are often attributed to low quality information communication in early stages of the process when key decisions are made by individuals who have limited understanding of how micro-level decision-making can significantly affect macro-level system performance, that eventually leads to the phenomenon of “vicious circles” in new product development processes. Agent-based simulation is a promising approach that can be applied to understand complex systems, such as new product development processes. This paper reports an application of agent-based simulation to time-related aspects of vicious circles in a new product development process case study from a large UK-based manufacturing company. A simulation model was developed following an experimental method established in the research. In the model, work teams and their activities and contributions to the process are represented by autonomous agents. Initial simulation results showed agent-based simulation is an effective and efficient approach for understanding and studying vicious circles in new product development processes.